Thursday, March 27, 2025
Wednesday, March 26, 2025
Tuesday, March 25, 2025
Sunday, March 23, 2025
How I Think About Climate Change
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Neil,
It is possible that climate alarmists are correct and that human CO₂ emissions will lead to disastrous climate change unless we take drastic action. However, I have about a hundred reasons to believe they are not. We will find out in time because we are currently running the experiment. While some changes are occurring, they do not seem significant enough to warrant panic. I believe we have far more time to address this issue than alarmists suggest, as these changes are happening very slowly.
Looking at temperature data, it took approximately 140 years for the average atmospheric temperature to rise by just 1°C—starting from 1880, which was an exceptionally cold decade.
One major reason for resistance to drastic climate policies is that human civilization depends on cheap, reliable energy to thrive. The proposed solutions are often expensive, unreliable, and require draconian government controls. I do not want the government to control the entire energy sector unless there is an overwhelmingly strong existential reason to do so.
I have followed this issue for 37 years and have seen many dire predictions fail to materialize. Around 35 years ago, some claimed that we would face catastrophe within 25 years. Yet, our supposed doom always seems to be 25 years away—much like nuclear fusion. 🙂
As I mentioned earlier, the rate of change is slow, but another key factor is climate sensitivity to CO₂ doubling. Just 15 years ago, some climate scientists estimated climate sensitivity to be between 6 and 12°C. However, these predictions have gradually been revised downward. Around 2010, experts warned that we were on track for a 3°C increase by 2100 and that this would be dangerous, though a 2°C rise would be manageable. Less than a decade later, I saw similar claims, but the numbers had shifted: now a 2°C increase was the catastrophe, and 1.5°C was the new "manageable" threshold. The goalposts keep moving.
We have nearly doubled atmospheric CO₂ since pre-industrial levels—though not quite yet. However, we have not observed a 6–12°C increase. After analyzing temperature and CO₂ data from 1880, I did some calculations and estimated a climate sensitivity of around 2°C.
A 2015 graph comparing climate model predictions with actual temperature changes showed that nearly all models ran too hot. Only the Russian model was close to reality.
We now live in a political climate where truth is often defined by narrative rather than data. It is a post-truth society. There have been numerous reports of scientists struggling to secure funding or publication unless they align with the official narrative.
The IPCC is not an unbiased organization. They have refused to hire anyone who does not already subscribe to the belief in catastrophic man-made warming. This is not how science should be conducted—starting with a conclusion and working backward. Given that the IPCC is funded by governments, it should remain neutral and let data guide its conclusions. Instead, it behaves more like a political entity. The IPCC has also attempted to prevent skeptical papers from being published and has hired individuals affiliated with environmental lobbying groups—an obvious conflict of interest.
Some scientists have resigned from the IPCC, citing excessive bias. One former member stated that the real goal of the organization was to dismantle free-market capitalism.
Antonio Guterres, the socialist from Portugal who has led the UN since 2017, routinely makes exaggerated claims about climate change—such as his statement that oceans are "starting to boil."
Unfortunately, I do not trust the political system or academia to provide an honest assessment. I wish I could, but too many individuals and institutions appear to be pushing their agendas.
Best wishes,
John Coffey
Saturday, March 22, 2025
The Path to AGI is Coming Into View
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It seems like the wrong approach. LLMs excel at language but are not well-suited for other tasks. The top chess programs, for example, are exponentially stronger than the best human players. A general-purpose AI would likely need to be a collection of specialized tools, each designed for a specific task. By developing enough of these tools, you could create a highly intelligent system.
Tuesday, March 18, 2025
Saturday, March 15, 2025
Michael Mann Lawsuit Against Mark Steyn
Michael Mann is a climate scientist and a prominent figure in climate activism. He created the controversial "Hockey Stick" graph, which has been widely criticized for its methodology and accuracy.
Journalist and public speaker Mark Steyn referred to Mann as "a fraud." Mann, who has a history of suing critics, filed a lawsuit against Steyn. After a decade of litigation, Mann won a million-dollar judgment. However, an appeals court has largely overturned the ruling for misrepresentation by Mann and his lawyer.
https://www.youtube.com/live/2UcBaVeSMz8?t=986s
The next part of the video discusses the alleged fraud in government funding of climate activism.
https://www.youtube.com/live/2UcBaVeSMz8?t=1673s
Journalist and public speaker Mark Steyn referred to Mann as "a fraud." Mann, who has a history of suing critics, filed a lawsuit against Steyn. After a decade of litigation, Mann won a million-dollar judgment. However, an appeals court has largely overturned the ruling for misrepresentation by Mann and his lawyer.
https://www.youtube.com/live/2UcBaVeSMz8?t=986s
The next part of the video discusses the alleged fraud in government funding of climate activism.
https://www.youtube.com/live/2UcBaVeSMz8?t=1673s
Friday, March 14, 2025
Wednesday, March 12, 2025
Disease Preparedness, and Supply Chains
Disease Preparedness, and Supply Chains:
This is an interesting discussion from five years ago just as COVID-19 was taking off in the United States.
Monday, March 10, 2025
Sunday, March 9, 2025
Why Do Americans Call This a Biscuit?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Hl5drxqF09k
Bake something until it is completely dry and it can last for years. Sometimes decades. Some soldiers ate hardtack left over from previous wars.
Sea biscuits or hardtack led to the modern cracker.
Wednesday, March 5, 2025
Tuesday, March 4, 2025
Sunday, March 2, 2025
Saturday, March 1, 2025
Tuesday, February 25, 2025
Most common words in English
According to The Reading Teacher's Book of Lists, the first 25 words in the OEC make up about one-third of all printed material in English, and the first 100 words make up about half of all written English.[3] According to a study cited by Robert McCrum in The Story of English, all of the first hundred of the most common words in English are of Old English origin,[4] except for "people", ultimately from Latin "populus", and "because", in part from Latin "causa".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Most_common_words_in_English
Monday, February 24, 2025
Sunday, February 23, 2025
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