Sunday, March 30, 2025

Storm

I was working on my computer when an alarm went off on my phone, followed by a citywide tornado siren and multiple tornado warning alerts and texts.

The last two warnings, both from this month, were for tornadoes near the edges of the county, far from my location.

I did the only reasonable thing: I stepped outside to check out the weather. I wasn't the only one.  Just to the west, some ominous black storm clouds were gathering. It slowly started to rain, so I took shelter inside. The Weather Bug app indicated a fast-moving storm system overhead.

Then, the power went out. The storm sounded intense, so I temporarily hid in a large closet. It passed after a few minutes.

The power company sent a text estimating the outage would last until 2:15 AM.

The power came back on after about 2 hours and 15 minutes.

I wonder whether there was actually a tornado.

Two years ago, a tornado on the far west side of the county caused a massive burst of wind in Columbus, knocking down trees all over the city, including on a property across the street. That storm sounded worse; I genuinely thought my house was about to be hit by a tornado.

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Best wishes,

John Coffey

http://www.entertainmentjourney.com

16-Year-Old Girl Wakes Up Every Day Thinking It’s June 11

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKQV0u2-7OA

I have heard of a condition called anterograde amnesia, where people can't retain new memories.

Sunday, March 23, 2025

How I Think About Climate Change


@john2001plus
0 seconds ago
Neil,

It is possible that climate alarmists are correct and that human CO₂ emissions will lead to disastrous climate change unless we take drastic action. However, I have about a hundred reasons to believe they are not. We will find out in time because we are currently running the experiment. While some changes are occurring, they do not seem significant enough to warrant panic. I believe we have far more time to address this issue than alarmists suggest, as these changes are happening very slowly.

Looking at temperature data, it took approximately 140 years for the average atmospheric temperature to rise by just 1°C—starting from 1880, which was an exceptionally cold decade.

One major reason for resistance to drastic climate policies is that human civilization depends on cheap, reliable energy to thrive. The proposed solutions are often expensive, unreliable, and require draconian government controls. I do not want the government to control the entire energy sector unless there is an overwhelmingly strong existential reason to do so.

I have followed this issue for 37 years and have seen many dire predictions fail to materialize. Around 35 years ago, some claimed that we would face catastrophe within 25 years. Yet, our supposed doom always seems to be 25 years away—much like nuclear fusion. 🙂

As I mentioned earlier, the rate of change is slow, but another key factor is climate sensitivity to CO₂ doubling. Just 15 years ago, some climate scientists estimated climate sensitivity to be between 6 and 12°C. However, these predictions have gradually been revised downward. Around 2010, experts warned that we were on track for a 3°C increase by 2100 and that this would be dangerous, though a 2°C rise would be manageable. Less than a decade later, I saw similar claims, but the numbers had shifted: now a 2°C increase was the catastrophe, and 1.5°C was the new "manageable" threshold. The goalposts keep moving.

We have nearly doubled atmospheric CO₂ since pre-industrial levels—though not quite yet. However, we have not observed a 6–12°C increase. After analyzing temperature and CO₂ data from 1880, I did some calculations and estimated a climate sensitivity of around 2°C.

A 2015 graph comparing climate model predictions with actual temperature changes showed that nearly all models ran too hot. Only the Russian model was close to reality.

We now live in a political climate where truth is often defined by narrative rather than data. It is a post-truth society. There have been numerous reports of scientists struggling to secure funding or publication unless they align with the official narrative.

The IPCC is not an unbiased organization. They have refused to hire anyone who does not already subscribe to the belief in catastrophic man-made warming. This is not how science should be conducted—starting with a conclusion and working backward. Given that the IPCC is funded by governments, it should remain neutral and let data guide its conclusions. Instead, it behaves more like a political entity. The IPCC has also attempted to prevent skeptical papers from being published and has hired individuals affiliated with environmental lobbying groups—an obvious conflict of interest.

Some scientists have resigned from the IPCC, citing excessive bias. One former member stated that the real goal of the organization was to dismantle free-market capitalism.

Antonio Guterres, the socialist from Portugal who has led the UN since 2017, routinely makes exaggerated claims about climate change—such as his statement that oceans are "starting to boil."

Unfortunately, I do not trust the political system or academia to provide an honest assessment. I wish I could, but too many individuals and institutions appear to be pushing their agendas.

Best wishes,

John Coffey

Saturday, March 22, 2025

Has Neil deGrasse Tyson Ever Been Wrong?

The Path to AGI is Coming Into View


@john2001plus
0 seconds ago
It seems like the wrong approach. LLMs excel at language but are not well-suited for other tasks. The top chess programs, for example, are exponentially stronger than the best human players. A general-purpose AI would likely need to be a collection of specialized tools, each designed for a specific task. By developing enough of these tools, you could create a highly intelligent system.

Saturday, March 15, 2025

Neil deGrasse Tyson & Charles Liu Make Predictions About the Future

Michael Mann Lawsuit Against Mark Steyn

Michael Mann is a climate scientist and a prominent figure in climate activism. He created the controversial "Hockey Stick" graph, which has been widely criticized for its methodology and accuracy.

Journalist and public speaker Mark Steyn referred to Mann as "a fraud."  Mann, who has a history of suing critics, filed a lawsuit against Steyn.  After a decade of litigation, Mann won a million-dollar judgment.  However, an appeals court has largely overturned the ruling for misrepresentation by Mann and his lawyer.

https://www.youtube.com/live/2UcBaVeSMz8?t=986s

The next part of the video discusses the alleged fraud in government funding of climate activism.

https://www.youtube.com/live/2UcBaVeSMz8?t=1673s

Sunday, March 9, 2025

Why Do Americans Call This a Biscuit?

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Hl5drxqF09k

Bake something until it is completely dry and it can last for years.  Sometimes decades.  Some soldiers ate hardtack left over from previous wars.

Sea biscuits or hardtack led to the modern cracker.