Thursday, April 11, 2024

Old Tube TVs

For those who don't remember, powering up really old televisions would start as an expanding dot in the middle of the screen.  It would only take a few seconds to reach full size.  Old televisions used vacuum tubes instead of transistors, which needed warming up.  They glowed orange.  You could see them through the heat vents in the back.  In a dark room, the TV would light up the wall behind it.

I remember going to a repair shop that had dozens of different types of replacement tubes.   A local drug store used to have a tube tester by the door.

Starting in the mid-1970s, manufacturers advertised televisions that were "Instant On".  I noticed these TVs kept some vacuum tubes powered up even when the TV was "off".

Old TVs put out a great deal of heat.

Where we went wrong with the COVID-19 pandemic

Thursday, April 4, 2024

Talking to an anti COVID vaccine person

>I got mine almost right out of the gate, was sick for a little over a week and
>have been fine since, No vaccines just natural immunity. I don't have any
>comorbidities other than being an old fart. The Mrs has been vaccinated and
>boosted a couple of times and has gotten it twice. Once pretty bad. Screw that

I went for four years without getting COVID until the JN1 variant had a
different enough spike protein to have vaccine escape. I see no reason to say
screw the vaccine. I've seen the data that during the height of COVID, the
unvaccinated had several times the overall death rate.

I have a long history of respiratory illnesses, so the vaccine is likely
something that I needed.

After a doctor said that I was past COVID-19, I developed post-COVID bronchitis
that refuses to go away. This is what I am trying to get over.

>I see every reason to say "screw the vaccine"
>1.They knew out the gate that it would not prevent catching the virus.
>2. They knew out the gate it would not prevent the spread.
>3. They knew out the gate of the potential for respiratory and cardiac issues.
>4. They doctored virtually every statistical/numerical issue related to Covid
>with the end result that we as a people are completely in the dark as to what
>the fuck is going on. 
>5. They restricted access to any known effective
>medicines. I could continue the list probably to at least 20-30. I think the
>whole purpose was to get the people to accept being guinea pigs for the MRNA
>experimental gene therapy

I have tried where possible to look at the scientific studies regarding this

Your "out of the gate" points are incorrect.  It is true as the disease mutated
the vaccines were less effective, but they were still better than nothing.

The initial trial showed that the vaccine was over 90% effective at preventing
the disease and hospitalization.  However, in getting the Emergency Use
Authorization they did not have time to test if the vaccine stopped the spread
of the disease. An official from Pfizer admitted this to the congress of the
European Union, and the anti-vax conspiracy theorists ran with this and claimed
that this proved that the vaccine didn't stop the spread of the disease.
However, that doesn't mean those studies weren't done later, and I have read at
least a couple of studies that showed that the vaccine helped stop the spread of
the disease.

I would like to send you a link that shows that the overall death rate was
several times higher among the unvaccinated.

Best wishes,

>You and I have different news sources,,, I still trust mine and do not trust
>yours'. It might be different if they hadn't lied to us continuously throughout
>the whole damn process. There are admittedly numerous "studies" and "papers",,,
>but how many are 100% independent??? which they would have to be for me to
>consider them to be even worth considering

I don't believe that we have been lied to the whole time.  We started with
incomplete information and information evolved as circumstances and our
understanding changed.

I think that scientific papers are trustworthy.  If you can't trust scientific
papers then who can you trust?

It has been my observation that the anti-vax people are mostly conspiracy
theorists. I think that they do themselves a disservice because they will be
vulnerable to preventable diseases.

My cousin refused to take the vaccine and died from COVID.  She regretted not
taking the vaccine.  My sister is a physician who had patients who refused to
take the vaccine and died.

Some people will be healthier than others and perhaps will be fine.  

Best Wishes,

John Coffey

Saturday, March 30, 2024

Did This Parrot Just Ask a Question?

The parrot imitates sounds he had heard in anticipation of a reward. He is not perfect at identifying materials but appears to be learning.

Some parrots can identify materials, colors, and shapes at the same time.

Thursday, March 7, 2024

Meteor Strike

I already saw the video.  April 13th, 2029 will be pretty interesting.  I would like to get some binoculars and watch the asteroid go by.

On Thu, Mar 7, 2024 at 12:46 AM Albert wrote:
While we worry about high prices, illegal immigrants, the high price of KFC, there's one more thing to worry about. See the video below for details. lol

Thursday, February 29, 2024

Probably the worst idea in the history of the space age

Will We Ever Cure Multiple Sclerosis?

Climate deniers don't deny climate change any more

This is a straw man argument.

It is absurd. The political left deliberately promotes falsehoods and then cry bloody murder when people object to their nonsense. 

 The IPCC has shown its bias by refusing to hire anyone who does not already believe in catastrophic man-made warming. This is not how you do science, by starting with the conclusion. Real science is done by looking at the data and seeing where that takes you.

The IPCC has tried to suppress papers by skeptics and even got a skeptic fired from a university. 

 One person who resigned from the IPCC said that it wasn't so much about protecting the Climate as it was about doing away with free-market capitalism. Other people have resigned from the IPCC in protest claiming that they were too biased. 

 Everywhere I look I see articles claiming that the only solution to Climate Change is socialism. At least for some, this is the real agenda. 

It is questionable to claim that everything is rigidly peer-reviewed when the universities have been taken over by the extreme left. 

 Almost everyone believes that the average atmosphere temperature has increased, by a small amount, and that humans are the cause. There are some minor disagreements over the details, but there is widespread agreement on the basics. However, future predictions of gloom and doom are very debatable and scientifically disprovable. The CO2 level is already at 90% of its potential to block infrared radiation. Climate Alarmism depends upon as-of-yet unproven positive feedback mechanisms. If there were some evidence for this I would be on board, but there is a long list of past predictions that have not come true. 

The solutions involve making energy expensive for everyone and denying energy to developing countries.

Saturday, February 24, 2024

New Evidence Suggests Long COVID Could Be a Brain Injury

'As part of the preprint study, participants took a cognition test with their scores age-matched to those who had not suffered a serious bout of COVID-19. Then a blood sample was taken to look for specific biomarkers, showing that elevated levels of certain biomarkers were consistent with a brain injury. Using brain scans, researchers also found that certain regions of the brain associated with attention were reduced in volume.

Patients who participated in the study were "less accurate and slower" in their cognition, and suffered from at least one mental health condition, such as depression, anxiety, or posttraumatic stress disorder, according to researchers.

The brain deficits found in COVID-19 patients were equivalent to 20 years of brain aging and provided proof of what doctors have feared: that this virus can damage the brain and result in ongoing mental health issues. 

"We found global deficits across cognition,"'

Tuesday, February 20, 2024

The Hockey Stick Trial: Science (and free speech) Dies in a DC Courtroom

In a 39-page report, climate scientist Judith Curry gave her opinion that it is "reasonable" to have referred to the hockey stick in 2012 as "fraudulent" in the sense that "aspects of it are deceptive and misleading."

However, Judge Alfred S. Irving excluded Curry's report, which cataloged the manipulations of data to get a hockey stick shape and quoted severe criticisms of the hockey stick made even by climate scientists supportive of the climate-change consensus (most of these made privately).'


The trial closed with Mann's counsel, John Williams, making a naked appeal to the jurors' political prejudices. Williams urged the jury to award punitive damages so that no one will dare engage in "climate denialism" – just as Donald Trump's "election denialism" needed to be suppressed. "In 41 years of trying cases to juries," John Hinderaker wrote on the Powerline blog, "I have never heard such an outrageously improper appeal."

Wednesday, February 14, 2024


I was trying to be careful and not catch COVID-19.  I was still practicing social distancing when possible, but I caught it anyway.  I don't understand how I got it, but it was either at a chess club or from going to Walmart.  I use the curbside pickup at Walmart, but sometimes I also go into the store.

I thought I would be immune because I am fully vaccinated, but the dominant JN-1 variant has a slightly different spike protein, sometimes bypassing vaccine immunity.  The latest vaccine was supposed to offer some protection from this variant.

Yesterday, I had trouble getting Paxlovid because my pharmacy was sold out.  I had to go to three different pharmacies to get it.  I took my first dose last night and my second dose this morning.  I have eight more doses to go.

Paxlovid is supposed to stop the virus from replicating, which would be very nice.  Any virus will grow exponentially until your immune system kicks in and starts destroying the virus.  The Paxlovid might help the immune system to win the war.

Yesterday, on my second day of COVID-19, I felt like I had a bad cold and could not get anything productive done.  I went to sleep at 10:30 which is early for me.  I woke at 5:00 AM feeling fully rested but wishing I had gotten more sleep.  I got up for a couple of hours, but when I started to feel tired I went back to bed.  I didn't think that I would be able to go back to sleep, but I got just enough of a nap to make me feel better.

I can tell that there is a battle going on in my body.  Either the immune system will win, or the virus will.  So far, I feel better today than yesterday, so maybe my immune system is working.

Best wishes,

John Coffey

Monday, February 12, 2024

Senator Wants to Prosecute Climate Realists!

The chance of this happening in the United States is close to zero but not zero.  Sometimes, mass hysteria takes over, and I could see this happening in other countries.

The Milky Way Galaxy’s Core Is Lighter and Less Mysterious Than We Thought

Fwd: Methane Causing the End of the Ice Age

---------- Forwarded message ---------

On Mon, Feb 12, 2024 at 1:04 AM al wrote:
I think this video came after the one you sent. It talks extensively about a dramatic peak in methane in the atmosphere, which has much more to do with global warming than CO2. I found it interesting.



This video is three months old and I already saw it.  

I think that his claims are speculative.  We have been in the Pleistocene ice age for 2.6 million years.  It was caused by the huge decline of CO2 over the last 40 million years.  To say that the ice age would suddenly end because there is a spike in methane is speculative.

Although methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, it exists in the atmosphere at a much lower quantity, like 200 times less.  We measure it in parts per billion.

There is some concern that natural bodies of water, like large lakes, that contain greenhouse gasses could release those gasses if disturbed.

Water vapor is the most influential greenhouse gas.  Minor changes in CO2 level can change how much water vapor is in the atmosphere creating positive feedback.  

There is disagreement on whether clouds produce positive or negative feedback, but I think that common sense would say that it is negative.  If it is positive as the IPCC claims, then this would imply that there would be a runaway greenhouse effect.  However, past spikes in warming did not see this.  Actual climate is complicated involving many factors.

By definition, the amount of radiation hitting the earth and radiating from it is balanced.  Greenhouse gases cause a change in the equilibrium producing a slightly higher temperature.


Friday, February 9, 2024

No upward trend in hurricanes

Famous "Expert" Climate Predictions That Never Happened

Michael Mann climate scientist wins defamation case

"After a day of deliberations, the jury ruled that Simberg and Steyn defamed Mann through some of their statements. The compensatory damages were just $1 for each writer. But the punitive damages were larger. The jury ordered Simberg to pay Mann $1000 in punitive damages; it ordered Steyn to pay $1 million in punitive damages.

Mann did not respond to requests for comment. But in a statement posted to the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, he said: "I hope this verdict sends a message that falsely attacking climate scientists is not protected speech."

Simberg's attorney sent an email that cast the decision as a victory for him. In an email, Steyn's manager Melissa Howes said, "We always said that Mann never suffered any actual injury from the statement at issue. And today, after twelve years, the jury awarded him one dollar in compensatory damages."

Mann's trial comes at a time of increasing attacks on climate scientists, says Lauren Kurtz, executive director of the Climate Science Legal Defense Fund, who notes that her fund helps more scientists each year than the year before."

Just for the record, Michael Mann's hockey stick graph showing a rise in atmospheric temperature in the last few decades has been widely criticized.  The main complaint is that it leaves out the medieval warm period, making the current warming trend look unprecedented.  Poeple have also complained about his methodology.

Michael Mann has made failed predictions.  It seems somewhat justified to call him a fraud, and expressing this opinion should be protected free speech.

Things You Never Knew The Purpose Of - Part 1

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

Denying the Catastrophe: The Science of the Climate Skeptic's Position

"It is important to begin by emphasizing that few skeptics doubt or deny that carbon dioxide (CO2) is a greenhouse gas or that it and other greenhouse gasses (water vapor being the most important) help to warm the surface of the Earth. Further, few skeptics deny that man is probably contributing to higher CO2 levels through his burning of fossil fuels, though remember we are talking about a maximum total change in atmospheric CO2 concentration due to man of about 0.01% over the last 100 years.

What skeptics deny is the catastrophe, the notion that man's incremental contributions to CO2 levels will create catastrophic warming and wildly adverse climate changes. To understand the skeptic's position requires understanding something about the alarmists' case that is seldom discussed in the press: the theory of catastrophic man-made global warming is actually comprised of two separate, linked theories, of which only the first is frequently discussed in the media.

The first theory is that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels (approximately what we might see under the more extreme emission assumptions for the next century) will lead to about a degree Celsius of warming. Though some quibble over the number – it might be a half degree, it might be a degree and a half – most skeptics, alarmists and even the UN's IPCC are roughly in agreement on this fact.

But one degree due to the all the CO2 emissions we might see over the next century is hardly a catastrophe. The catastrophe, then, comes from the second theory, that the climate is dominated by positive feedbacks (basically acceleration factors) that multiply the warming from CO2 many fold. Thus one degree of warming from the greenhouse gas effect of CO2 might be multiplied to five or eight or even more degrees.

This second theory is the source of most of the predicted warming – not greenhouse gas theory per se but the notion that the Earth's climate (unlike nearly every other natural system) is dominated by positive feedbacks. This is the main proposition that skeptics doubt, and it is by far the weakest part of the alarmist case. One can argue whether the one degree of warming from CO2 is "settled science" (I think that is a crazy term to apply to any science this young), but the three, five, eight degrees from feedback are not at all settled. In fact, they are not even very well supported...

Despite these heroic efforts to try to find observational validation for their catastrophic warming forecasts, the evidence continues to accumulate that these forecasts are wildly overstated."

IPCC Insider Admits Climate Consensus Claim Was a Lie

The referenced paper by Hulme and Mahony is "Climate Change: what do we know about the IPCC?" Hulme, also author of the recent book, Why We Disagree About Climate Change, is a key proponent of what is called "post-normal science" (see here and here), a postmodern narrative that consists of a complete perversion of standard scientific practice that he supports in order to propagandize for his socialist agenda. As he explained in portions of his book and his article, "The appliance of science," in the Guardian (March 17, 2007):

"Philosophers and practitioners of science have identified this particular mode of scientific activity as one that occurs...where values are embedded in the way science is done and spoken."

"It has been labelled 'post-normal' science. Climate change seems to fall in this category. Disputes in post-normal science focus...on the process of science—who gets funded, who evaluates quality, who has the ear of policy...The IPCC is a classic example of a post-normal scientific activity." Customer reviews: Why We Disagree about Climate Change: Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity

"Having participated in the national and international debate over climate change for more than 15 years, I eagerly bought and read this book in the hope that it would examine the ideas and motives of both sides in the global warming debate. But that is not what this book is about.

The author, Mike Hulme, is a professor of climate change at the University of East Anglia, in the UK. He helped write the influential reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and many other government agencies that are commonly cited by alarmists in the debate. He has been one of the most prominent scientists declaring that "the debate is over" and that man-made global warming will be a catastrophe.

In this book, Hulme comes clean about the uncertain state of scientific knowledge about global warming, something alarmists almost never admit in public. For example, he writes, "the three questions examined above - What is causing climate change? By how much is warming likely to accelerate? What level of warming is dangerous? - represent just three of a number of contested or uncertain areas of knowledge about climate change." (p. 75)

Later he admits, "Uncertainty pervades scientific predictions about the future performance of global and regional climates. And uncertainties multiply when considering all the consequences that might follow from such changes in climate." (p. 83) On the subject of the IPCC's credibility, he admits it is "governed by a Bureau consisting of selected governmental representatives, thus ensuring that the Panel's work was clearly seen to be serving the needs of government and policy. The Panel was not to be a self-governing body of independent scientists." (p. 95)

All this is exactly what global warming "skeptics" have been saying for years. It is utterly damning to the alarmists' case to read these words in a book by one of their most prominent scientists.

How does Hulme justify hiding these truths from the general public? He calls climate change "a classic example of ... `post-normal science,'" and quoting Silvio Funtowicz and Jerry Ravetz, defines this as "the application of science to public issues where `facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent.'" Issues that are put into the category of "post-normal science" are no longer subject to the cardinal requirements of true science: skepticism, universalism, communalism, and disinterestedness."

In "post-normal science," consensus substitutes for true science.

Friday, February 2, 2024

How High The Water Will Be 🗽 w/ Neil deGrasse Tyson

This seems completely disingenuous.  Multiple sources have said that it will take 5,000 years for the polar ice caps to melt.  We are 5,000 to 10,000 years away from the next ice age. 

Meanwhile, we will be out of most fossil fuels within 100 years.  We only have 40 years of oil reserves.   Depending upon who you ask, it can take between 20 and 1,000 years for the CO2 to leave the atmosphere. Between 65% and 80% of it is absorbed by the oceans in 20 to 200 years.*  We are never going to get to the point where the polar ice caps melt.   

 It has taken 140 years for the average atmospheric temperature to rise by 1 degree Celsius.   The current rate of warming is less than 0.2 degrees per decade. We would have to rise 5 degrees Celsius to melt the ice caps. Therefore, we have plenty of time to deal with this problem if it is even a problem.   The rise of the seas will be very slow. 

Climate Alarmism depends upon as-of-yet unproven positive feedback mechanisms, because the effect of increased CO2 is very weak, especially going forward. There are many feedbacks positive and negative. There is widespread disagreement over clouds, where the alarmists think that clouds have positive feedback and the skeptics think that they have negative feedback.

"The lifetime in the air of CO2, the most significant man-made greenhouse gas, is probably the most difficult to determine because there are several processes that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Between 65% and 80% of CO2 released into the air dissolves into the ocean over a period of 20–200 years. The rest is removed by slower processes that take up to several hundreds of thousands of years,"

"About 50% of a CO2 increase will be removed from the atmosphere within 30 years, and a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries. The remaining 20% may stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years."

Can it be too cold to start a fire?

Maybe your car won't start at minus 40 degrees.

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Pleistocene Ice Age

Please give this video a couple of minutes:

The Tide of Science (Climate Change)

It seems to me that this does not rule out positive feedback from water vapor.  As I have mentioned, there is widespread disagreement on the feedback from clouds.  The alarmists think that the feedback is positive, and the skeptics think that the feedback is negative.  Even if the feedback is positive, we don't know to what extent.  To get a runaway greenhouse we would need a feedback of 1 or greater.  That would be a disaster.  However, the figures I have seen have been around 0.6, which means that for every extra degree of warming, you get another partial degree of positive feedback.

I agree with the skeptics on this.  Warming produces clouds.  Clouds reflect sunlight back into space and make the Earth cooler.

Wednesday, January 24, 2024

4.5 Billion Years in 1 Hour

2 minutes ago
Rather than proceed at a constant rate, it would have been better to spend less time at the beginning and much more time on the details that come later. Human and mammalian evolution would have made great topics to explore.

A scientific view of the greenhouse effect

Why do some molecules absorb infrared radiation and not others?  What is the mechanism for absorbing infrared radiation?

Some molecules are very stable in their electron configuration, so they don't absorb photons because it would take too much energy to knock an electron out of its normal orbit.  This is why glass is transparent when other materials are not.
The CO2 molecule can bend and twist making its electrons more exposed to photons.  When an infrared photon hits it correctly, the energy of the photon is absorbed which knocks one of the electrons to a higher orbit.  This is not the preferred state of the electron, so three nanoseconds later the electron falls back to its ground state.  However, it has to give up the energy it absorbed, so it emits an infrared photon.  Because of the random nature of quantum physics, the infrared photon is emitted in a random direction.  So the primary effect of CO2 in the atmosphere is to take infrared photons that were traveling up and away from the Earth and send some of them back down.  CO2 is very good at scattering infrared radiation.

The direct effect of CO2 in warming the atmosphere is not huge.  Climate Alarmism depends upon as-of-yet unproven positive feedback models.  There are many feedbacks positive and negative, and these are not fully understood.  Climate scientists admit that they do not yet fully know how to factor in the feedback from clouds, and there is widespread disagreement over clouds.  The alarmists are claiming positive feedback while the skeptics are claiming negative feedback.

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Fwd: Pitfall of Extrapolation


On Mon, Jan 15, 2024 at 12:14 AM Albert wrote:
Hi John,

Sometimes you run into something that's interesting but you realize that most of your friends either don't care or don't get it. Well, this YouTube video was one of those interesting things. You're the only person I could think of who would find it interesting. I have to start looking for some more smart friends or at least curious friends. lol

On Tue, Jan 16, 2024 at 7:53 AM John Coffey <> wrote:
I saw this one.

I am pretty mathematical.  I found it interesting, but not enough to figure out the reason.

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: John Coffey <>
Date: Tue, Jan 16, 2024 at 8:11 AM
Subject: Re: Pitfall of Extrapolation
To: Albert 

I was dumb enough to watch the full video here:

This involves math slightly above my level and lacks relevance to my life.  

Sometimes math goes so far down the rabbit hole that it feels like naval gazing.

I often thought that I should have been a math major.  It would have been more interesting to me than my biology major and fits in well with computer programming.

Tuesday, January 9, 2024

Iconic Black Hole Pioneer Disproves The Existence of Singularities

A singularity is a large star that has collapsed down to zero volume.  I have always thought that this would be impossible, and many physicists have also questioned it.  It means that if we calculate the density we would get a divide by zero error, or infinite density.  I think that infinite anything is absurd.

Last year I heard about a new model of physics that as a side note claimed that matter has a maximum density, which means that if true then Black Holes do not have zero volume.  The problem with this is that we might need another force that we don't know about yet to enforce this maximum density.  We also don't have a good way to test this, and we may never really know what happens inside a Black Hole.

I heard one idea which is that as a star collapses to almost zero volume, gravity would trend toward infinite strength because gravity is inverse to distance, which means theat time dilation also would trend toward infinite.  This means that collapse would never finish because time local to the singularity would almost stop.

There was another theory from last year that Black Holes consume matter but emit Dark Energy, which would explain the accelerating expansion of the Universe.  However, the current theory is that Dark Energy is simply a property of empty space.

Friday, January 5, 2024

You couldn't spend 300 seconds near it...

The strength of NUCLEAR PASTA

xkcd: Earth Temperature Timeline

For the last 40 million years, atmospheric CO2 has been in sharp decline.  Because of this, the climate for the last million years was very cold and dominated by mass glaciation.  Technically, we are still in the Pleistocene ice age which started 2.6 million years ago.

Due to changes in Earth's orbit, called Milankovich cycles, we get a brief warm period every 100,000 years, lasting just 10,000 to 15,000 years.  We are at the tail end of one of these warm periods. 

The Earth is halfway between its maximum tilt 12,000 years ago, which melts glaciers, and its minimum tilt which allows glaciers to grow.

All of civilization arose during this brief warm period.  The YouTube site, Kurzgesagt, refers to now as year 12,024 of the human era.