Thursday, January 27, 2022

COVID-19: A Second Opinion

There are few people I can share this with.  Many would take this as confirmation of anti-vax and pro alternative treatments that aren't necessarily proven to work.  They would take it as confirmation of a conspiracy by pharmaceutical companies.


I think that there is a danger in using anecdotal evidence.  Emotions take over.  Although I am no expert, I have tried to look at peer-reviewed studies whenever possible.

In reality, everyone wants effective treatments for COVID.  If such treatments were really effective, we would know.

Omicron BA. 2 will displace BA. 1

I think that this is interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMLZepCMFQo

Brianna Keilar rolls the tape on Fox’s Covid-19 vaccine misinformation -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxN74pcTHdE

It should be pointed out that Fox News just doesn't take one side...

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Here's What I Learned (COVID) - Youtube

Fwd: Powerful James Web Telescope

According to NASA, the telescope will be 100 times more powerful than Hubble and could detect the heat from a bumblebee as far away as the moon.

The next phase of the telescope is to figure out how to tilt each mirror segment to get the best focus possible on the images, which may take several months.

The telescope is going to orbit a position 2,930,000 miles from Earth. Webb's telescope is also complete with a sunshade that will block heat that may interfere with its detectors. Once the camera cools to an operational temperature, Webb will be pointed at a bright star and mosaics will map out the size of it.

New space telescope images promise to 'knock everybody's socks off' | WKRC (local12.com)


Friday, January 21, 2022

Jordan Peterson Finally Shares His Views On The Pandemic

New technology could lead to coal without CO2...cars/trucks/planes?

The great deception of the last 40 years is that we need to reduce carbon emissions.   

Iron Fertilization can reduce atmospheric CO2 levels as much as we want, but there is no immediate need for it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_fertilization#:~:text=Iron%20fertilization%20is%20the%20intentional,surface%20to%20stimulate%20phytoplankton%20production.&text=Large%20algal%20blooms%20can%20be,blooms%20can%20nourish%20other%20organisms.

Nature can handle pollution up to a certain point until it becomes too much for nature to handle.  Increased CO2 levels have benefited the environment due to increased plant growth.   An argument can be made that plants were CO2 starved.  We don't want to throw away something that is actually very beneficial.

Weather-related deaths are down 98% over the last 100 years.  Cold kills more people than heat.

I don't consider CO2 a pollutant until it becomes too much.  That might be in the 800 to 1000 PPM range.  Long before we reach that point, we will be running out of most fossil fuels and Nuclear Fusion will likely be a reality.

On Thu, Jan 20, 2022, at 2:09 AM Larry  wrote:



Thursday, January 13, 2022

Vaccines don't protect against the spread of the disease?

I am hearing repeatedly the misinformation that the COVID vaccines don't protect against the spread of COVID.  What if this is true?  My response to things like this is to try to find as much information as possible.

After looking at a number of sources, I conclude that it is all relative.  If you are vaccinated then you are less likely to catch the disease and spread it, but this is less effective against the Delta variant.  Still, you have about 75% protection against the Delta variant, but this could wane after 3 months.  Against the Omicron Variant, you can get pretty good protection with a booster, but two vaccinations might not be enough.  This protection might also wane in 3 months, 

However, vaccinations give longer-lasting protection against severe disease.  Being vaccinated is much better off than not being vaccinated.

Personally, I would be happy to get a booster every three months or get the new vaccine for the Omicron variant.

You are much more likely to be hospitalized if you are unvaccinated.  

Vaccines protect against the spread of COVID:
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/how-vaccines-reduce-transmission
https://www.osfhealthcare.org/blog/fully-vaccinated-less-likely-to-pass-covid-19-to-others/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/11/17/fact-check-covid-19-vaccines-protect-against-infection-transmission/6403678001/
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/vaccinated-people-can-transmit-the-coronavirus-but-its-still-more-likely-if-youre-unvaccinated
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/10/13/do-coronavirus-vaccines-prevent-transmission-of-the-virus
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccinated-people-are-less-likely-spread-covid-new-research-finds-n1280583
https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/mounting-evidence-suggests-covid-vaccines-do-reduce-transmission-how-does-work
https://theconversation.com/no-vaccinated-people-are-not-just-as-infectious-as-unvaccinated-people-if-they-get-covid-171302
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/dec/09/facebook-posts/no-covid-19-vaccines-do-not-increase-transmission-/
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1112

Vaccines offer some protection against the spread of COVID:
https://fullfact.org/online/neil-oliver-vaccines-effect/

Vaccines help protect against the spread of the Delta Variant:
https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/vaccination-reduces-transmission-to-unvaccinated-household-members-by-63-for-delta-variant
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/10/covid-vaccines-protect-against-delta-dont-fully-stop-disease-spread
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-risk-of-vaccinated-covid-transmission-is-not-low/
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/231557/covid-vaccines-effective-household-transmission-delta/
https://patient.info/news-and-features/does-being-vaccinated-against-covid-19-stop-you-getting-infected

Vaccines protect against the spread of the Delta variant but for only 3 months:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y

Vaccines are 75% effective against the Delta Variant:
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/delta-variant-vaccines-protect-from-severe-disease-but-do-not-stop-all-transmission
https://www.rollcall.com/2021/07/30/cdc-report-shows-vaccinated-people-can-spread-covid-19/

Breakthrough infections only occur in a small proportion of vaccinated people:
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-breakthrough-infection-transmission

Vaccines are safe and effective.  Less effective against variants:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/vaccines-faq 
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/vaccine-benefits.html?s_cid=10466:should%20i%20vaccinate:sem.ga:p:RG:GM:gen:PTN:FY21
https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/6-myths-about-covid-19-vaccines-debunked

A large number of cases are among the unvaccinated:
https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2021-11-19/why-the-covid-19-vaccines-do-not-stop-the-virus-from-circulating.html

Vaccines do not prevent spread within households, but unvaccinated more likely:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/28/covid-vaccinated-likely-unjabbed-infect-cohabiters-study-suggests

Vaccinated people carry less infectious virus particles:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/11/vaccinated-spread-the-coronavirus/620650/
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/10/12/1044553048/covid-data-vaccines-breakthrough-infections-transmission

Boosters protect against Omicron:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59696499
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/by-the-numbers-covid-19-vaccines-and-omicron
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-cannot-escape-t-cells-boosters-protect-households-omicron-2021-12-29/
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/how-booster-shots-can-help-protect-you-from-omicron
https://www.uchealth.org/today/booster-shots-protection-against-omicron/
https://www.prevention.com/health/health-conditions/a38461092/omicron-covid-variant-vaccine-booster-efficacy/
https://www.urmc.rochester.edu/news/story/omicron-has-arrived-heres-what-we-know-so-far
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/how-effective-are-covid-19-vaccines-against-omicron
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/12/14/1063947940/vaccine-protection-vs-omicron-infection-may-drop-to-30-but-does-cut-severe-disea
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/omicron-variant.html
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/vaccine-efficacy-data-shows-how-shots-protect-against-omicron-covid-variant/2716776/
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccines-that-protect-best-against-omicron-variant/85-aefef265-550a-4493-ab61-41158bad6f5a
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-mrna-booster-vaccine-offers-best-protection-against-omicron
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/how-booster-shots-can-help-protect-you-from-omicron
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20211220/moderna-booster-increases-protection-against-omicron
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/significant-increase-protection-vs-omicron-mrna-boosters-study-says-2021-12-22/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/12/20/moderna-booster-effective-against-omicron-study-shows-covid-19-news/8963500002/

Booster protection against Omicron wanes in 10 weeks but prevents severe disease.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/23/health/booster-protection-omicron.html
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232657/boosters-vital-mitigate-impact-omicron-lose/

Omicron Vaccine might be ready by March:
--

Saturday, January 1, 2022

Anti-vax

This is regarding all the anti-vax people.  In the United States, this was originally around 20% of the population but now it might be slightly less.  (https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/12/26/heres-how-covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-has-and-hasnt-changed-over-2021/?sh=7ffac54673ba)   There are some unwilling to take the COVID vaccine who otherwise would not be anti-vaccine.  However, around 40% of the U.S. population is still not fully vaccinated.

An individual who is anti-vax might not catch the disease, or if they do they might not spread it to other people, but statistics say that they do catch the disease then they are likely to spread it to multiple people.  The anti-vax crowd as a whole is causing more people to get sick and die by spreading the disease, but also by spreading a great deal of misinformation.  I routinely get emails from friends with completely absurd statements about the vaccines that are not backed by science and are easily debunked.  People follow this information like it was the gospel truth.  So-called experts lacking any form of relevant credentials promote this information without backing it up with any convincing evidence or peer-reviewed studies.  When you look at the particulars of the claims being made, they fall apart quickly.  Yet, if you try to confront people with evidence, they just double down on their anti-vax position.

My frustration with the anti-vax crowd is turning to anger.  I have more than one family member who would most likely die if they were to catch COVID-19.  The anti-vax people care a great deal about their risk with the vaccines, which is so minuscule that it is hardly worth mentioning, but they don't seem to care at all about the much greater and very real risk to other people.  If the death rate of the disease were around 25%, I don't think that we would be having this discussion, but since the death rate is only around 2% for known cases, it is in an area where people start to think that it is not important.  Because the disease mostly kills the elderly and people with comorbidities, I often hear the excuse that those people would have died anyway.  However, those people's lives still matter, and they most likely would live years with whatever medical conditions they have.  They don't deserve to have their lives cut short by a mostly preventable disease.

In the year 2020, we had 20% more deaths than normal. 

There is much misinformation floating around about how the vaccines don't prevent you from getting the disease, nor prevent you from spreading it.  However, the data shows that vaccinated people are much less likely to get the disease, spread it, have severe symptoms, get hospitalized, and die.  Getting any vaccine is playing the odds; it doesn't fully protect you, but it is far better than nothing.

People are confused because the immunity from the vaccines has waned over time and the vaccines are less effective against the variants.  However, we always knew that any form of immunity would wane over time and that eventually we would need boosters.  The vaccines were designed to combat the original COVID-19 disease, against which they are incredibly effective.  We always knew that variants could arise and that we might need different or modified vaccines.

-- 

Best wishes,

John Coffey