Saturday, April 2, 2022

Law of averages

I tend to assume that if something hasn't happened for a while that it is more likely.  This is a gambler's fallacy.  

If you roll dice a million times then the numbers that come up will resemble a bell curve with 7 being the most likely result, but past events don't predict future random events.  The law of averages works because large samples hide short-term aberrations.

The exception might be when dealing with human choices that otherwise would be random.  Some people might have tendencies to do or not do particular actions.

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